Aim:

To provide an explanatory framework for how performers – such as athletes, coaches, referees, and other stakeholders – function and optimise outcomes in their performance space.

Predictive Processing Framework for Sports

Predictive Processes:

The predictive processes include the internal psychological and neurobiological operations of the performer. To understand how these predictive processes operate to support adaptive functioning, there are several aspects which are of particular importance: (1) predictions, (2) model of the game, (3) error minimisation, and (4) precision.

Predictions:

The performer’s brain is continuously engaged in the processes of trying to predict and refine predictions about what is likely to happen in the performance space. These predictions are generated in a probabilistic manner based on the performer’s model of the game and refined via an error minimisation process, which aims to reduce the discrepancy between what is predicted and reality. 

Model of the Game:

The performer’s model of the game is an internal representation that reflects their understanding (or belief) about the performance space, how it works, and how they function within it, given their past experiences and the factors present in the current context.

Error Minimisation:

The performer’s brain has a biological imperative to minimise the difference between its predictions and actual events. This imperative, which is more technically referred to as the free energy principle, helps the performer to avoid unwanted situations (e.g., predicting success and attaining failure). When the performer’s prediction matches what actually happens, the brain does not need to update its predictions. However, when a mismatch is detected, the performer’s brain must mobilise resources (e.g., attentional, emotional, and action-based mechanisms) to update their predictions to better fit reality and/or take action to change the situation to better reflect their predictions.

Precision:

The performer’s brain has the ability to dial up or down the importance of sensory information and prediction error signals (e.g., assigning a greater value to what a teammate says than what an opponent says). This ability to assign value to the importance of particular information over other information can help performers direct their attention where needed, block out distractions, and coordinate responses to the presence of prediction errors.  

The Sporting Environment:

The sporting environment conveys a considerable amount of information that can shape and influence a performer’s ability to function and attain optimal outcomes in the performance space. Broadly speaking, the information present in the sporting environment can be considered observable or hidden. 

Observable Elements:

Observable elements refers to those sources of information in the sporting environment that can be perceived via the performer’s sensory processes. These observable elements typically include things performers can see, hear, touch, smell, and taste, such as player movements, equipment, communications, field conditions, and refreshments. 

Hidden Elements:

Hidden elements refer to those sources of information in the sporting environment that are present (and influential) but not directly perceivable via the performer’s senses. These hidden elements (which are typically embedded in the performer’s model of the game) include things such as the norms, expectations, rules of play, and uncertainty. 

Zone of Influence:

The performer’s internal predictive processes and the sporting environment are integrated through the zone of influence. In this zone, the performer emits actions to influence the sporting environment and reciprocally perceives sensory information from it. 

Actions:

Actions (such as physical movements and communications) are the primary way in which the performer influences the sporting environment. To a certain extent, these actions are purposeful, goal-directed, and intended to help the performer participate, compete, and attain desired outcomes in their sporting context. 

Perceptions:

The performer is reciprocally influenced by the sporting environment via their perception of environmental sensory information. Given the abundance of information available in the sporting environment, performers must learn to distinguish the signal from the noise and determine what is useful and unuseful information for optimal functioning in their performance space.